When Relief Meets Reality: Markets Juggle Tariffs, Tech Shocks & Fed Signals

A wild week where policy pivots, chip chaos, and consumer nerves collide – Here’s what you need to know.

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Market Mastery Digest
April 21, 2025

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Silicon Shock: When chipmakers become pawns in the tariff chessboard.

Hey, Market Mastery crew! 👋

Happy Easter Sunday to you and your loved ones 🐰🥚

Hope you're enjoying some well-deserved rest, maybe even cracking a few chocolate eggs while keeping half an eye on the markets (or none at all – we won't judge 😎).

This week?

The market got a whole Easter basket full of surprises – some sweet, some sour.

From a sudden tech rally, to Fed Chair Powell playing it cool, to Nvidia taking a hit, and recession fears crawling back in...

Let’s unwrap it all together.

The week kicked off on a high note after the White House decided to temporarily exempt smartphones and computers from the latest round of tariffs.

That single announcement lit a fire under tech stocks – Apple led the charge, and semiconductors followed with a vengeance.

The relief sparked optimism that more exemptions could be coming, and futures reflected that hope.

Still, investors kept one eye on the headlines, waiting for the other shoe to drop.

Midweek, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stepped in with a calm but cautious message: No rate moves for now.

The Fed wants to observe how the economy absorbs the tariff pressure before making any policy shifts.

Beneath the surface, though, he acknowledged slowing growth and soft consumer spending – signaling that the road ahead could get bumpy.

Then came the gut punch: Nvidia warned of a $5.5 billion hit tied to U.S. restrictions on exporting AI chips to China.

The news knocked the wind out of the stock, and the semiconductor sector took a spill with it.

Investors, who had been riding the AI wave with confidence, suddenly saw just how exposed Big Tech is to geopolitical crossfire.

Fresh economic data painted a bleaker picture.

A Reuters poll revealed that the chance of a U.S. recession has jumped to 45%, driven largely by aggressive trade policies.

At the same time, the ECB slashed interest rates yet again, hoping to prop up a wobbly Eurozone as global trade tension spills across borders.

The market didn’t fall apart, but the mood definitely shifted from hopeful to wary.

As earnings season kicks off, investor enthusiasm is... tempered.

Projections for S&P 500 earnings growth have been revised down to 9.2% for 2025, with companies likely to blame tariffs and global uncertainty in their forward guidance.

Still, the big players are stepping up to the mic soon, and that could shake things up again.

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Earnings season heats up with Tesla and Alphabet (Google) taking center stage.

Tesla, still reeling from a massive sell-off and weak delivery numbers, is under intense scrutiny as it reports on Tuesday.

Alphabet reports Thursday, and investors are watching closely to see if its bold $75 billion AI infrastructure bet can offset recent cloud revenue disappointments.

Also on deck: Boeing, Intel, GE Aerospace, IBM, ServiceNow, and a slew of telecom giants like AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Comcast, and Charter Communications.

Meanwhile, Consumer Sentiment and Housing Data will offer fresh reads on how Americans are reacting to Trump’s tariff moves.

The final April reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index drops Friday – it’s expected to confirm a four-month downtrend.

Midweek, we’ll get New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, and PMI Flash Reports – all key to understanding how tariffs are rippling through manufacturing, housing, and services.

This week felt like a classic case of “one step forward, two steps sideways”.

The market tried to climb, but kept looking over its shoulder – tariffs, tech tensions, and tremors of a slowdown kept the bulls in check.

So what’s the takeaway?

Stay sharp, stay patient, and watch the macro narrative unfold.

Big moves might come not from what companies say… but what Powell doesn’t.

Until next time, trade smart and enjoy the rest of your long weekend! 😎